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段永平的博客

条条道路都可能通罗马,这里是一条"未必"最好但肯定能到的。

 
 
 

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2011年04月06日  

2011-04-07 01:44:09|  分类: 一点想法 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Four blue chips ripe for spinoffs
12:01a ET April 6, 2011 (MarketWatch)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Recently, there has been a spike in spinoff transactions.

Examples include Fortune Brands Inc. and its plans to spin off non-liquor-related business, Marathon Oil Corp.'s move to spin off its refining business and Motorola splitting into Motorola Solutions Inc. and Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. to separate its smartphone business from other operations.

No doubt, the results can be nice for investors. Just look at ITT Corp. In early January, it announced that it would spin off its water and military technology businesses. And Wall Street loved it.

On the announcement, ITT's stock spiked 16.5%. The belief was that the company would have more focus and improve its competitiveness. Besides, ITT shareholders would not have to worry about declining military spending. Ultimately, profits should increase.

So what are some other companies that are ripe for spinoffs? Here's a look:

Pfizer Inc.

Since reaching $14 last July, Pfizer's stock has had a nice run. It's now trading at $20. Unfortunately, it's still well below the price at which it traded in 2000 -- about $45. The fact is that Pfizer has been living off several blockbuster drugs that will soon come off their patents. At the same time, its pipeline of new drugs has been meager.

But Pfizer has a new chief executive, Ian Read, who wants to shake things up. For example, this week, the company said it will sell its Capsugel business to KKR for $2.38 billion.

Yet this should be only the start. Pfizer has several other substantial businesses like animal health, generic pharmaceuticals and nutritionals.

Pfizer has certainly noted the spinoff strategy's success at rival Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. , which issued shares in Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. in early February 2009. Since then, Mead Johnson's stock has gone from $26.81 to $58.33 and its price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27. Consider that Bristol-Myers's multiple is only 14.

Applying the same valuation multiple to Pfizer's nutritionals unit, a spinoff would result in a valuation of about $7 billion.

Symantec Corp.

Back in late 2004, Symantec's stock was trading at about $32, and its core security-software business was strong. But to push growth, the company spent $13 billion on Veritas Software, which was a major storage provider. The strategic rationale was that there would eventually be lots of synergies between security and storage.

However, the merger turned out to be a dud. Symantec's stock price is now at about $18.46.

Yet security and storage remain solid businesses with promising long-term futures. Over the past few years, Hewlett-Packard Co. , IBM and Dell Inc. have paid hefty premiums for these types of companies.

For Symantec, a good way to realize this value is to spin off its storage business. Top companies in the sector include Netapp Inc. and EMC Corp. , which trade at cash flow multiples of about 15.

Assuming Symantec's storage business can trade at the same levels, it would be about $15 billion. That's roughly the parent company's current market cap.

Yahoo Inc.

In 2008, Microsoft Corp. offered $33 a share to buy Yahoo , but that wasn't enough to reach a deal. Well, now Yahoo's shares are trading at about $16.84.

Yahoo has continued to suffer, though. It has failed to deal with the growing threat of Facebook and Google Inc. . There have also been layoffs, which have caused low morale.

But Yahoo still has some juicy assets, such as a 35% stake in its Japan business and 40% of Alibaba, a top e-commerce operator in China. Based on the market values of these assets, a sale could result in cash of $14 to $15 a share.

True, a transaction will not be easy because of shareholder agreements and taxes. But with so much at stake, there should be lots of incentive to get a deal done.

General Electric Co.

General Electric understands the importance of spinoffs. For example, it structured a deal to transfer a 51% controlling stake in the NBC Universal division to Comcast Corp.

For a company like GE, it is important to have a highly optimized portfolio of companies, which have scale and large cash flows. But to grow, the company is now focused on the global market for energy infrastructure.

So it probably makes sense to spin off other businesses. And perhaps the most obvious is GE Capital. The business suffered greatly during the financial crisis of 2008, but it has since recovered nicely.

The valuation? Well, assuming it is about 1 times book value, it would be about $68 billion.

Hilary Kramer is editor of the newsletter. As of this writing she did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.


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如果雅虎真能“spinoff”日本雅虎的话,其实尽管阿里巴巴集团这部分没上市的情况下应该也可以这样做吧?

如果真能这样做的话,不就解决了马云的问题吗?我一直觉得巴茨没办法给出一个马云能接受的价钱的原因

其实是因为她根本就不是“老板”,没办法定价(所以只能定得很高)。如果把这部分交给市场来定价似乎

是个办法。如果马云觉得便宜还可以直接买回来,如果嫌贵则由他去了,反正那时投票权是在小股东手里,

阿里集团会成为实际的控股人。不过要做到这点似乎挺复杂的,好像也没见过先例。

仔细想来,雅虎倒是有点像烟蒂型的股票2011年04月06日 - 段永平 - 段永平的博客

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